Policy making in the Tanzanian petro state: Building a statistical basis

This paper deals with needs and availability of data, statistics and information in Tanzania. It relates to a five-year (2014–19) research programme on prospects and challenges for the petroleum sector.

The main objectives are

  • to present a brief analysis based on data which is accessible at present and
  • to sketch a structure for the Tanzania Petro Data Hub

To read the paper click here.

Understanding the lay of the land: An institutional analysis of petro-governance in Tanzania

Tanzania has recently discovered large petroleum and natural gas reserves, boosting its natural resource stocks and potential future revenue flows. Whether the country’s petroleum resources will translate into economic development will be determined by the institutions that the government puts into place to govern the petroleum sector, to include the legal institutions. This study reviews the most important provisions of the new legislative framework that the government has recently adopted to govern this newfound wealth. We examine the institutions and actors created by the legislation as well as the opportunities and challenges that may emerge in its future implementation. Specifically, we analyse the petro-sector institutions that the legislation creates and the types of authorities granted to them; the institutional constraints placed on authorities; the interaction between institutions; potential institutional overlaps, conflicts and gaps; and transparency and accountability mechanisms. Read the paper here

Governance challenges in Tanzania’s natural gas sector: unregulated lobbyism and uncoordinated policy

Fjeldstad, Odd-Helge and Johnsøn, Jesper. 2017. Governance challenges in Tanzania’s natural gas sector: unregulated lobbyism and uncoordinated policy. Chapter 3 (pp. 44-57) in Aled Williams and Philippe le Billon (eds.) Corruption, natural resources and development: from resource curse to political ecology. Edward Elgar Publishing. http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/corruption-naturalresources-and-development

HOW CAN TANZANIA HARNESS NATURAL RESOURCES: TRAINING

Organised and delivered by REPOA and Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) from 03 to 07 July 2017 at REPOA, Dar es Salaam. The training was a hands-on “learning from practice” workshop that focused on building the understanding of the links between, and the dynamics of, extractives governance and the implementation of the Second Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP II). The training aimed to improve participants’ knowledge of not only policy options and tools to achieving the objectives of the plan, but of also the inherent challenges…read more here

Progress in data availability for the petro programme

An increasing amount of data for policymaking and public engagement in Tanzania are being made available in the Tanzania Petro Hub (http://data.tanpetstate.org/ ). Below are the latest ones:

The working paper at (http://www.cmi.no/publications/file/6196-policy-making-in-the-tanzanian-petro-state.pdf/), entitled “Policy Making in the Tanzanian Petro State: Building a Statistical Basis” has taken a long time in construction since the original concept for the Petro Data Hub comprises several priorities that will have to be balanced against each other. First, it should serve many different interests like data demands of researchers within the petrostate programme but additionally also the needs of the wider research community, civil society and other individuals in Tanzania.  Second, since the petro-programme covers both the petroleum (gas) sector itself but importantly also its social and economic effects on Tanzania, it could potentially cover nearly all social, economic (and other) statistics and thus overlap completely the data disseminated by NBS and all other statistics producing institutions in the country. The line taken has been to cover wide areas of statistical information but restrict the data presented to those that may be said to cover areas of interest for the research programme.

In many areas, the present availability of relevant data is poor.  This was shown in the first part of the paper where we examined and presented accessible data including the resource base and its exploitation spatially and geologically; then investments, operators and production, including a brief historical overview. The economic contribution of the gas resource in terms of GDP, investment, external trade and balance of payments, employment and fiscal contribution as well as social contribution was also covered.

The Data Hub is structured as a number of Groups, presently in all 22 (some more may be necessary in future). The actual composition of groups can be seen in http://data.tanpetstate.org/group?page=1. Each group will contain one or more datasets and accompanying metadata.

The Data Hub will not only comprise numerical data but also link to a number of important legal and policy documents as well as governance and institutions. In addition, aspects of petroleum geology and resources including territory issues are included.  Quantitative data will include exploration and investment in the petroleum industry, information on various types of capital goods (e.g. petroleum pipelines) for the industry. Current statistics on petroleum (gas) production and sales and foreign trade will be included, as well as activities in other and petroleum related industry like energy, production, investment and consumption. Overall effects of the petro industries will be gauged in a section on national accounts, including financial and budget issues as well as quantitative analysis and models for the petroleum industry. Finally, the wider issues like social developments and poverty as well as environment information and petro related politics in Tanzania, like opinion polls on petroleum issues will be included.  A section on international comparative statistics will have links to international databases for comparison purposes.

It is hoped that a useable database can be presented at the ARW 2017 in Dar es Salaam. The Data Hub will continue to be “work in progress” as new datasets will be added to it as they become available. The Data Hub will have to be based completely on secondary statistics, as the data component of the petro programme does not have means to collect primary data.

Strategic Positioning of a NOC in the context of the new regulatory and the operating environment

On September 28, Dr. Donald Mmari (REPOA) and Prof. Sufian Bukurura (Law Reform Commission of Tanzania) presented their work on the strategic positioning of a NOC in the context of the new regulatory and the operating environment.

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There was wide media coverage of Dr. Donald Mmari and Professor Sufian Bukurura’s presentation. Prof. Bukurura here interviewed by journalists. Photo: Joyce Bayona

 

The presentation is available here: Strategic positioning of a NOC in the context of the new regulatory and the operating environment

 

Strategic Significance of National Oil Companies: Lessons for Tanzania

This paper examines the genesis of national oil companies (NOCs) and the political economy underpinning the diverse forms in which they are structured and operate. It also examines how they contribute to the development needs of the countries that have established them. The paper draws mainly from a desk review of relevant literature, institutional records and interviews from selected knowledgeable informants, and it aims to promote informed dialogue on this subject that has caught the attention of stakeholders in Tanzania in recent years following the discovery of a substantial amount of natural gas in the deep sea. The underlying proposition is that the benefits of hydrocarbon to the country can be maximized when a NOC exists, but it must operate within a robust institutional framework. As the case studies demonstrate, the robustness of the institutional framework, in turn, depends on the historical trajectory, broader institutional landscape and political economy underpinning the country’s development path. The authors argue that the Tanzanian NOC has vast potential for contributing to economic transformation in the country given the vast hydrocarbon resources, provided that the proper institutional and policy conditions are put in place.

The report Strategic Significance of National Oil Companies: Lessons for Tanzania is available here

 

Local content requirements in the petroleum sector in Tanzania: A thorny road from inception to implementation?

Tanzania has recently discovered huge offshore natural gas fields. This has led the Government to develop local content policies (LCPs) to increase job and business opportunities for nationals in the sector. We study the process behind the development of these policies and the positions of stakeholders. We find that although there is a positive view among domestic stakeholders of imposing such policies, there is much suspicion–to such a degree that it shapes their recommendations of which policies to include in the LCP. One reason is that the Government monopolized the policy development process and abstained from conducting a consultative process. Our findings suggest that future Tanzanian policy development should include in-depth consultations to maximize the decision maker’s knowledge base, add to the transparency of the process and manage expectations. This would also contribute to effective implementation and lessen tensions, conflicts and suspicion among stakeholders.

Read our latest working paper in full text

Presenting at the TrAcRevenues workshop

24 and 25 August, Ingrid Hoem Sjursen (Choice Lab, NHH), Kendra Dupuy (CMI/U4) and Odd-Helge Fjeldstad (CMI/ATI) participated at the TrAcRevenues Workshop: Transparency and Accountability in Managing High-Value Natural Resources. Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) in Trondheim. The Transparency and Accountability in Managing High-Value Natural Resource Revenues (TrAcRevenues) is an initiative that examines how increased transparency can help to transform natural resource revenues in developing countries into a blessing rather than a curse.

The workshop was organized by Prof Päivi Lujala, Dept. of Geography, and gathered about 25 scholars from Europe, Africa, Asia and the US, including Michael Ross (Dept. of Political Science, UCLA) and Ragnar Torvik (Dept of Economics, NTNU).

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Odd-Helge Fjeldstad (CMI/ATI) and Kendra Dupuy (U4/CMI) presented at the TrAcRevenues workshop in Trondheim on 24-25 August. (Photos: Ingrid Hoem Sjursen)

Odd-Helge Fjeldstad presented the research programme ‘Tanzania as a future petro-state’ (2014-19), including ongoing activities and findings so far. Kendra Dupuy presented a new study titled “The global participation backlash: Implications for multistakeholder natural resource governance initiatives”. The study focused on new legislations in an increasing number of countries that put major constraints on civil society and international NGOs’ work in these countries. The discussion also briefly addressed possible implications for independent research on natural resource governance.

Ingrid Hoem Sjursen presented a new paper titled “Managing the resource curse” (joint with The Choice Lab researchers Alexander Cappelen, Bertil Tungodden and Odd-Helge Fjeldstad (CMI) and Donald Mmari (REPOA)). The key research question addressed was: “Does expectations about future gas revenues affect citizens’ attitude toward a tax increase, expectations about future corruption and trust in the government?”